Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:00 · San Martín de Tucumán vs Ferrocarril Midland
Likeliest: San Martín de Tucumán win · 41%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
San Martín de Tucumán41%43%−2
OursMarket
Draw35%32%+3
OursMarket
Ferrocarril Midland24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 33% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 41% | 39% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
San Martín de Tucumán
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at Atlanta (A)0-1
- Oct 3 · v Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta (H)1-0
- Sep 28 · at Gimnasia Jujuy (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · at Atlético de Rafaela (A)2-4
- Sep 13 · v Agropecuario Argentino (H)3-0
Ferrocarril Midland
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 10 · v Atlético de Rafaela (H)4-0
- Oct 3 · at Agropecuario Argentino (A)0-0
- Sep 27 · v Tristán Suárez (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Güemes (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | San Martín de Tucumán | Ferrocarril Midland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-1 | 1-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.