Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Wed, Oct 14 · 18:00 · San Martin Reserve vs CD Riestra Reserve
Likeliest: CD Riestra Reserve win · 62%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 62% for the away win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
San Martin Reserve15%17%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%21%+3
OursMarket
CD Riestra Reserve62%61%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 39% | 39% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 86% | 83% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 79% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 19% | 22% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
San Martin Reserve
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 8 · at Belgrano Reserve (A)2-3
- Oct 1 · v Lanús Reserve (H)0-2
- Sep 25 · v Godoy Cruz Reserve (H)0-0
- Sep 17 · at Newell's Old Boys Reserve (A)0-4
- Sep 9 · v Defensa y Justicia Reserve (H)1-1
CD Riestra Reserve
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 7 · v Independiente Rivadavia De Mendoza Reserve (H)3-1
- Oct 1 · at Colón Reserve (A)1-0
- Sep 24 · v Barracas Central Reserve (H)3-0
- Sep 17 · at Belgrano Reserve (A)1-2
- Sep 10 · v Lanús Reserve (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | San Martin Reserve | CD Riestra Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-1 | 3-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.