Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:00 · San Miguel vs Ciudad de Bolivar
Likeliest: San Miguel win · 41%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
San Miguel41%43%−2
OursMarket
Draw36%33%+3
OursMarket
Ciudad de Bolivar23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 31% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 42% | 39% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 64% | 67% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
San Miguel
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 10 · at Almirante Brown (A)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Mitre (H)0-2
- Sep 26 · at Estudiantes de Buenos Aires (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v All Boys (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Los Andes (A)1-1
Ciudad de Bolivar
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · v San Telmo (H)1-0
- Oct 3 · at Acassuso (A)1-0
- Sep 26 · v Chaco For Ever (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Club Ferro Carril Oeste (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v Central Norte de Salta (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | San Miguel | Ciudad de Bolivar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-3 | 2-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.