Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 24 · 20:00 · San Miguel vs Deportivo Madryn
Likeliest: Deportivo Madryn win · 48%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
San Miguel24%——
OursMarket
Draw28%——
OursMarket
Deportivo Madryn48%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
San Miguel
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · v Ciudad de Bolivar (H)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Almirante Brown (A)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Mitre (H)0-2
- Sep 26 · at Estudiantes de Buenos Aires (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v All Boys (H)1-1
Deportivo Madryn
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at Acassuso (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · v Chaco For Ever (H)1-2
- Oct 2 · at Club Ferro Carril Oeste (A)2-0
- Sep 26 · v Central Norte de Salta (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Racing de Córdoba (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | San Miguel | Deportivo Madryn |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-7 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-4 | 2-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.