3rd Division, Group 6 (Norway) · Sat, Sep 26 · 13:00 · Sandefjord Fotball II vs Elverum
Likeliest: Sandefjord Fotball II win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 24%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sandefjord Fotball II41%24%+17
OursMarket
Draw28%21%+7
OursMarket
Elverum32%55%−23
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 45% | +23 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 76% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 79% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 30% | +26 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sandefjord Fotball II
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 21 · at Brumunddal (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Ørn-Horten (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Oppsal (H)2-1
- Aug 31 · at Lyn 1896 FK II (A)3-4
- Aug 15 · v Bjoerkelangen (H)4-1
Elverum
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Raelingen FK (H)4-1
- Sep 16 · v Raufoss (H)0-3
- Sep 12 · at Råde (A)2-4
- Sep 5 · at Brumunddal (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Lillehammer (H)4-3
| Last 10 games | Sandefjord Fotball II | Elverum |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-4 | 6-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 78% |
| Both teams scored | 88% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 22% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.