3rd Division, Group 6 (Norway) · Mon, Oct 12 · 17:00 · Sandefjord Fotball II vs Råde
Likeliest: Sandefjord Fotball II win · 42%
A 28% draw. The market says 21%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sandefjord Fotball II42%38%+4
OursMarket
Draw28%21%+7
OursMarket
Råde30%41%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 79% | −28 |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 59% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 62% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 79% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 48% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sandefjord Fotball II
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 3 · at Fram Larvik (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Elverum (H)4-3
- Sep 21 · at Brumunddal (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Ørn-Horten (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Oppsal (H)2-1
Råde
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 5 · at Lyn 1896 FK II (A)0-0
- Sep 26 · v Lillehammer (H)1-5
- Sep 19 · at Fram Larvik (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Elverum (H)4-2
- Sep 5 · v Gjøvik-Lyn (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Sandefjord Fotball II | Råde |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-1 | 1-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.