Eliteserien (Norway) · Sun, Sep 20 · 15:00 · Sandefjord Fotball vs IK Start
Likeliest: Sandefjord Fotball win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sandefjord Fotball46%46%0
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
IK Start28%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sandefjord Fotball
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 14 · at Bodø/Glimt (A)2-3
- Sep 4 · v Viking FK (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · v SK Brann (H)0-0
- Aug 16 · at Sarpsborg 08 (A)2-1
- Aug 7 · v KFUM Oslo (H)0-1
IK Start
LossWinLossWinWin
- Sep 16 · at Vindbjart (A)3-2
- Sep 13 · v SK Brann (H)2-0
- Sep 4 · at Aalesunds FK (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · v KFUM Oslo (H)4-1
- Aug 8 · v Fredrikstad FK (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Sandefjord Fotball | IK Start |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-4-2 | 2-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.