Eliteserien (Norway) · Sun, Oct 18 · 15:00 · Sandefjord Fotball vs Lillestrøm SK
Likeliest: Lillestrøm SK win · 41%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sandefjord Fotball33%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Lillestrøm SK41%39%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 60% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 47% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sandefjord Fotball
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 10 · at Rosenborg BK (A)1-1
- Sep 30 · at Flint FK (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v IK Start (H)3-0
- Sep 14 · at Bodø/Glimt (A)2-3
- Sep 4 · v Viking FK (H)1-1
Lillestrøm SK
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Oct 15 · at AC Sparta Praha (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Molde FK (H)2-2
- Oct 1 · at Bærum SK (A)5-1
- Sep 20 · at Viking FK (A)0-3
- Sep 17 · v Torreense (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Sandefjord Fotball | Lillestrøm SK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-2 | 3-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.