1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 11 · 15:00 · Sandnes Ulf vs Haugesund
Likeliest: Haugesund win · 57%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 57% for the away win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sandnes Ulf20%22%−1
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+2
OursMarket
Haugesund57%57%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 92% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 72% | −9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 69% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 43% | 43% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 26% | 27% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sandnes Ulf
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 3 · at Strømmen IF (A)3-3
- Sep 20 · v Moss FK (H)1-2
- Sep 16 · at Arendal (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · at Strømsgodset (A)1-4
- Sep 5 · v Ranheim IL (H)1-1
Haugesund
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 3 · v Stabæk Fotball (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · v Strømmen IF (H)4-2
- Sep 13 · at Moss FK (A)4-1
- Sep 5 · v Sogndal IL (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · at Bryne FK (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Sandnes Ulf | Haugesund |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 3.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-4 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.