1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 25 · 13:30 · Sandnes Ulf vs Lyn FK
Likeliest: Sandnes Ulf win · 40%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sandnes Ulf40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Lyn FK35%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 64% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 66% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 54% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sandnes Ulf
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Kongsvinger (A)0-4
- Oct 14 · at Stabæk Fotball (A)1-4
- Oct 11 · v Haugesund (H)1-1
- Oct 3 · at Strømmen IF (A)3-3
- Sep 20 · v Moss FK (H)1-2
Lyn FK
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Moss FK (H)1-0
- Oct 14 · at Haugesund (A)0-3
- Oct 11 · v Strømsgodset (H)0-0
- Oct 4 · at Bryne FK (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Ranheim IL (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | Sandnes Ulf | Lyn FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.