Superettan (Sweden) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:00 · Sandvikens IF vs Östersunds FK
Likeliest: Östersunds FK win · 41%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 52%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sandvikens IF28%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+3
OursMarket
Östersunds FK41%41%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 52% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 43% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sandvikens IF
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at Landskrona (A)2-3
- Sep 19 · v Örebro (H)4-2
- Sep 15 · at IK Brage (A)1-1
- Sep 9 · v IK Oddevold (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Helsingborg (A)2-0
Östersunds FK
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · v Varbergs BoIS (H)1-1
- Sep 18 · at Falkenbergs FF (A)0-0
- Sep 14 · v Helsingborg (H)1-0
- Sep 10 · v IK Brage (H)1-1
- Sep 7 · at Örebro (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Sandvikens IF | Östersunds FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-6-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-3 | 3-6-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.