Emperor Cup (Japan) · Wed, Oct 7 · 09:30 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Iwaki FC
Likeliest: Sanfrecce Hiroshima win · 72%
Likely score: 3–0
A tight one: we make it 72% for the home win. The market says 72%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sanfrecce Hiroshima72%72%0
OursMarket
Draw17%17%0
OursMarket
Iwaki FC11%11%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 61% | −9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 89% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 28% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 83% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 87% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 3.3 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Sep 19 · at Avispa Fukuoka (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Cerezo Osaka (H)6-1
- Sep 6 · at Fagiano Okayama (A)2-3
- Sep 2 · v Nagoya Grampus (H)3-0
- Aug 29 · at Gamba Osaka (A)0-0
Iwaki FC
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 4 · at Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Vegalta Sendai (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Sagan Tosu (A)3-1
- Sep 12 · v Yokohama FC (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at Tokushima Vortis (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Iwaki FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-0-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 1-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.