J-League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 17 · 05:00 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga FC
Likeliest: Sanfrecce Hiroshima win · 74%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 74% for the home win. The market says 71%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sanfrecce Hiroshima74%71%+3
OursMarket
Draw16%17%−1
OursMarket
Kyoto Sanga FC10%12%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 88% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 26% | 29% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Tokyo Verdy (A)2-0
- Oct 7 · v Iwaki FC (H)4-0
- Sep 19 · at Avispa Fukuoka (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Cerezo Osaka (H)6-1
- Sep 6 · at Fagiano Okayama (A)2-3
Kyoto Sanga FC
LossWinWinLossWin
- Oct 13 · v Ratchaburi (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Machida Zelvia (H)0-1
- Sep 23 · v Fujieda MYFC (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Fagiano Okayama (A)2-1
- Sep 15 · at Daejeon Hana Citizen (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Kyoto Sanga FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.