J-League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 24 · 05:00 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse
Likeliest: Sanfrecce Hiroshima win · 63%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Sanfrecce Hiroshima63%——
OursMarket
Draw23%——
OursMarket
Shimizu S-Pulse14%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Kyoto Sanga FC (H)3-0
- Oct 11 · at Tokyo Verdy (A)2-0
- Oct 7 · v Iwaki FC (H)4-0
- Sep 19 · at Avispa Fukuoka (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Cerezo Osaka (H)6-1
Shimizu S-Pulse
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 17 · v Gamba Osaka (H)2-2
- Oct 11 · at Mito Hollyhock (A)2-1
- Oct 7 · v V-Varen Nagasaki (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · v JEF United Chiba (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Avispa Fukuoka (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Shimizu S-Pulse |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.