Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sun, Sep 6 · 14:30 · Santa Clara vs Rio Ave
Likeliest: Santa Clara win · 53%
We make it 49% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Santa Clara53%54%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Rio Ave21%19%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 44% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 47% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 81% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 46% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 74% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Santa Clara
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Aug 29 · at FC Alverca (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · v Famalicão (H)1-0
- Aug 15 · at Académico Viseu FC (A)1-0
- Aug 10 · v CD Nacional (H)2-2
- May 16 · at Porto (A)0-1
Rio Ave
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Aug 28 · v Sporting (H)0-4
- Aug 22 · at Estoril Praia (A)2-0
- Aug 15 · v FC Porto (H)0-2
- Aug 9 · at Gil Vicente (A)0-1
- May 16 · at Casa Pia (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Santa Clara | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.