Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sun, Sep 20 · 17:00 · Santa Clara vs Sporting Braga
Likeliest: Sporting Braga win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Santa Clara21%25%−4
OursMarket
Draw33%29%+3
OursMarket
Sporting Braga46%45%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 38% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 45% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 36% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Santa Clara
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 13 · at FC Arouca (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Rio Ave (H)4-0
- Aug 29 · at FC Alverca (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · v Famalicão (H)1-0
- Aug 15 · at Académico Viseu FC (A)1-0
Sporting Braga
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Sep 14 · v Estoril Praia (H)1-0
- Sep 10 · at CF Estrela Amadora (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · at FC Alverca (A)2-1
- Aug 31 · v Vitória SC (H)1-0
- Aug 27 · at Austria Wien (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Santa Clara | Sporting Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.