Liga MX (Mexico) · Sun, Sep 27 · 03:05 · Santos Laguna vs CF Pachuca
Likeliest: CF Pachuca win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Santos Laguna27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
CF Pachuca46%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 41% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Santos Laguna
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Sep 21 · at CD Toluca (A)3-2
- Sep 14 · v FC Juárez (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Cruz Azul (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · v Tigres UANL (H)0-0
- Aug 23 · at Club Puebla (A)2-3
CF Pachuca
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Sep 21 · v Club Tijuana (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Atlante FC (A)3-0
- Sep 5 · at FC Juárez (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · v CD Guadalajara (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Atlético San Luis (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Santos Laguna | CF Pachuca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.