Liga MX (Mexico) · Thu, Oct 22 · 03:10 · Santos Laguna vs Pumas UNAM
Likeliest: Pumas UNAM win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
We make it 45% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Santos Laguna36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
Pumas UNAM36%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 62% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Santos Laguna
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Querétaro FC (H)5-0
- Oct 11 · at Atlético San Luis (A)2-1
- Sep 27 · v CF Pachuca (H)1-0
- Sep 21 · at CD Toluca (A)3-2
- Sep 14 · v FC Juárez (H)2-1
Pumas UNAM
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · at Atlante FC (A)2-1
- Oct 12 · v Cruz Azul (H)3-3
- Sep 27 · v Atlético San Luis (H)2-3
- Sep 19 · at Atlas FC (A)1-1
- Sep 14 · at CD Guadalajara (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Santos Laguna | Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.