Liga MX (Mexico) · Sat, Oct 17 · 23:00 · Santos Laguna vs Querétaro FC
Likeliest: Santos Laguna win · 37%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Santos Laguna37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Querétaro FC36%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Santos Laguna
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Atlético San Luis (A)2-1
- Sep 27 · v CF Pachuca (H)1-0
- Sep 21 · at CD Toluca (A)3-2
- Sep 14 · v FC Juárez (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Cruz Azul (A)0-1
Querétaro FC
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Atlante FC (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · at CD Guadalajara (A)2-0
- Sep 21 · v Club León (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Club Tijuana (A)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Atlas FC (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Santos Laguna | Querétaro FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.