Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Wed, Sep 9 · 22:00 · Santos vs Atlético Mineiro
Likeliest: Santos win · 49%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Santos49%42%+7
OursMarket
Draw27%30%−3
OursMarket
Atlético Mineiro25%29%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 41% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 49% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 58% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 59% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Santos
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 6 · at Internacional (A)3-2
- Sep 3 · v Palmeiras (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at Corinthians (A)1-0
- Aug 27 · at Palmeiras (A)0-3
- Aug 23 · v Mirassol (H)1-1
Atlético Mineiro
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Sep 5 · at São Paulo (A)0-2
- Sep 2 · v Cruzeiro (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Vitória (H)2-1
- Aug 26 · at Cruzeiro (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Internacional (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Santos | Atlético Mineiro |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.