Serie A (Brazil) · Sun, Oct 25 · 00:00 · Santos vs Bahia
Likeliest: Santos win · 48%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Santos48%47%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Bahia26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Santos
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 18 · at Fluminense (A)2-1
- Oct 11 · at Atlético Mineiro (A)1-2
- Oct 8 · v Flamengo (H)2-2
- Oct 2 · at São Paulo (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Remo (A)2-1
Bahia
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 18 · v Flamengo (H)0-3
- Oct 11 · v Mirassol (H)1-0
- Oct 9 · at Palmeiras (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Athletico (A)1-2
- Sep 14 · v Remo (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Santos | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.