Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Thu, Aug 13 · 22:00 · Santos vs Macará
Likeliest: Santos win · 43%
A 30% away win. The market says 13%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Santos43%67%−24
OursMarket
Draw28%21%+7
OursMarket
Macará30%13%+17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 57% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 87% | −17 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 33% | +24 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 79% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 84% | −25 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Santos
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Aug 9 · v Athletico (H)0-2
- Aug 5 · at Remo (A)1-0
- Aug 2 · v Remo (H)0-0
- Jul 29 · v Universidad Central (H)4-2
- Jul 25 · v Chapecoense (H)2-2
Macará
LossWinWinWinWin
- Aug 9 · at Barcelona SC (A)2-1
- Aug 2 · v Guayaquil City (H)2-1
- Jul 26 · at Aucas (A)4-1
- Jul 22 · v Deportivo Cuenca (H)3-0
- Jul 18 · at Delfín (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Santos | Macará |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.