Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Thu, Sep 3 · 00:30 · Santos vs Palmeiras
Likeliest: Palmeiras win · 48%
A 48% away win. The market says 41%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Santos26%29%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−4
OursMarket
Palmeiras48%41%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 59% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 41% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Santos
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Aug 30 · at Corinthians (A)1-0
- Aug 27 · at Palmeiras (A)0-3
- Aug 23 · v Mirassol (H)1-1
- Aug 20 · at Macará (A)0-0
- Aug 16 · at Vasco da Gama (A)3-0
Palmeiras
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Aug 30 · at Mirassol (A)1-1
- Aug 27 · v Santos (H)3-0
- Aug 23 · v Vasco da Gama (H)4-1
- Aug 19 · at Cerro Porteño (A)1-0
- Aug 15 · at Fluminense (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Santos | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.