Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Sun, Aug 2 · 00:00 · Santos vs Remo
Likeliest: Santos win · 52%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Santos52%57%−5
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Remo24%18%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 47% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 82% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 43% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 76% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Santos
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Jul 29 · v Universidad Central (H)4-2
- Jul 25 · v Chapecoense (H)2-2
- Jul 22 · at Universidad Central (A)4-1
- Jul 16 · at Botafogo (A)1-2
- May 30 · v Vitória (H)3-1
Remo
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Jul 29 · at Mirassol (A)1-2
- Jul 26 · v Vitória (H)2-0
- Jul 23 · at Corinthians (A)0-3
- May 31 · v São Paulo (H)1-0
- May 24 · v Athletico PR (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Santos | Remo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.