Serie B (Brazil) · Sun, Oct 18 · 19:00 · São Bernardo vs Criciúma
Likeliest: Criciúma win · 35%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 35% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
São Bernardo32%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+3
OursMarket
Criciúma35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 41% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 46% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
São Bernardo
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Oct 11 · at Juventude (A)2-2
- Oct 6 · at Sport Recife (A)1-2
- Oct 2 · v CRB (H)3-1
- Sep 25 · at Novorizontino (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Atlético Goianiense (H)1-0
Criciúma
LossWinWinLossWin
- Oct 12 · v América Mineiro (H)1-0
- Oct 8 · at Ceará (A)0-1
- Oct 2 · at Londrina (A)2-0
- Sep 27 · v Avaí (H)3-0
- Sep 22 · v Operário-PR (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | São Bernardo | Criciúma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.