Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Wed, Sep 16 · 00:30 · São Paulo vs Boca Juniors
Likeliest: São Paulo win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
São Paulo42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Boca Juniors27%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 38% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | 42% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
São Paulo
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 12 · at Palmeiras (A)0-2
- Sep 9 · at Boca Juniors (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Atlético Mineiro (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · v Red Bull Bragantino (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · at Chapecoense (A)0-1
Boca Juniors
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 12 · v Central Córdoba (H)3-1
- Sep 9 · v São Paulo (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (A)2-2
- Sep 3 · at Vélez Sarsfield (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Lanús (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | São Paulo | Boca Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-5-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.