Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Wed, Aug 19 · 00:30 · São Paulo vs Bolívar
Likeliest: São Paulo win · 54%
We make it 56% for both teams to score. The market says 49%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
São Paulo54%65%−11
OursMarket
Draw25%20%+4
OursMarket
Bolívar21%14%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 49% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 86% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 35% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 80% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 82% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
São Paulo
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Aug 16 · v Coritiba (H)1-1
- Aug 12 · at Bolívar (A)1-1
- Aug 8 · at Grêmio (A)1-2
- Jul 26 · at Flamengo (A)1-1
- Jul 23 · v Athletico (H)1-2
Bolívar
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Aug 15 · v San Antonio Bulo-Bulo (H)4-1
- Aug 12 · v São Paulo (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · at Club Aurora (A)4-2
- Aug 6 · v Oriente Petrolero (H)2-1
- Aug 2 · at Club Always Ready (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | São Paulo | Bolívar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.