Serie A (Brazil) · Sun, Oct 18 · 00:00 · São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama
Likeliest: São Paulo win · 42%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
São Paulo42%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Vasco da Gama29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
São Paulo
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Vitória (H)2-1
- Oct 8 · at Cruzeiro (A)0-2
- Oct 2 · v Santos (H)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Internacional (H)1-0
- Sep 16 · v Boca Juniors (H)1-1
Vasco da Gama
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 14 · at Boca Juniors (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Remo (H)0-0
- Oct 7 · at Botafogo (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Coritiba (H)5-0
- Sep 15 · v Independiente Santa Fe (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | São Paulo | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.