USL League One (USA) · Sat, Oct 3 · 23:30 · Sarasota Paradise vs Charlotte Independence
Likeliest: Sarasota Paradise win · 39%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sarasota Paradise39%40%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Charlotte Independence35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 54% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sarasota Paradise
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 26 · at Portland Hearts of Pine (A)4-1
- Sep 19 · v Greenville Triumph SC (H)6-0
- Sep 12 · at Forward Madison FC (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Spokane Velocity FC (H)1-1
- Sep 2 · at New York Cosmos (A)2-1
Charlotte Independence
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 26 · v Fort Wayne FC (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Richmond Kickers (A)2-1
- Sep 17 · at AC Boise (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Westchester SC (H)5-4
- Sep 6 · at Union Omaha SC (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Sarasota Paradise | Charlotte Independence |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-0 | 3-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.