USL League One (USA) · Wed, Oct 21 · 22:30 · Sarasota Paradise vs FC Naples
Likeliest: Sarasota Paradise win · 56%
Likely score: 2–1
A 56% home win. The market says 49%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sarasota Paradise56%49%+8
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
FC Naples22%26%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 54% | +7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 74% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 51% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 65% | +7 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sarasota Paradise
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Fort Wayne FC (A)3-1
- Oct 10 · v Richmond Kickers (H)3-2
- Oct 3 · v Charlotte Independence (H)2-3
- Sep 26 · at Portland Hearts of Pine (A)4-1
- Sep 19 · v Greenville Triumph SC (H)6-0
FC Naples
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Corpus Christi FC (A)1-0
- Oct 7 · v Richmond Kickers (H)2-0
- Oct 3 · v New York Cosmos (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Fort Wayne FC (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Sarasota Paradise | FC Naples |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.