USL League One (USA) · Sat, Oct 10 · 23:30 · Sarasota Paradise vs Richmond Kickers
Likeliest: Sarasota Paradise win · 57%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sarasota Paradise57%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Richmond Kickers20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.7 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sarasota Paradise
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 3 · v Charlotte Independence (H)2-3
- Sep 26 · at Portland Hearts of Pine (A)4-1
- Sep 19 · v Greenville Triumph SC (H)6-0
- Sep 12 · at Forward Madison FC (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Spokane Velocity FC (H)1-1
Richmond Kickers
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 7 · at FC Naples (A)0-2
- Oct 3 · v One Knoxville SC (H)3-2
- Sep 26 · at New York Cosmos (A)2-3
- Sep 19 · v Charlotte Independence (H)1-2
- Sep 16 · at Westchester SC (A)2-5
| Last 10 games | Sarasota Paradise | Richmond Kickers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-1 | 0-0-10 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.