USL League One (USA) · Sat, Oct 24 · 23:30 · Sarasota Paradise vs Westchester SC
Likeliest: Sarasota Paradise win · 51%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Sarasota Paradise51%——
OursMarket
Draw22%——
OursMarket
Westchester SC27%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sarasota Paradise
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Fort Wayne FC (A)3-1
- Oct 10 · v Richmond Kickers (H)3-2
- Oct 3 · v Charlotte Independence (H)2-3
- Sep 26 · at Portland Hearts of Pine (A)4-1
- Sep 19 · v Greenville Triumph SC (H)6-0
Westchester SC
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Union Omaha SC (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · v Forward Madison FC (H)3-2
- Oct 3 · v AV Alta FC (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · at One Knoxville SC (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · at New York Cosmos (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Sarasota Paradise | Westchester SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-1 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.