Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Tue, Nov 3 · 18:00 · Sarmiento Reserve vs Banfield Reserve
Likeliest: Sarmiento Reserve win · 43%
Likely scores: 0–0 14% · 1–1 12% · 0–1 11%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sarmiento Reserve43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Banfield Reserve26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sarmiento Reserve
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Oct 27 · at Rosario Central Reserve (A)1-0
- Oct 20 · v Tigre Reserve (H)1-1
- Oct 15 · at San Lorenzo Reserve (A)1-1
- Oct 8 · v Vélez Sarsfield Reserve (H)0-1
- Oct 1 · at River Plate Reserve (A)0-1
Banfield Reserve
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 27 · v Argentinos Juniors Reserve (H)1-1
- Oct 20 · at Aldosivi Reserve (A)1-2
- Oct 13 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima Reserve (H)1-0
- Oct 6 · at Unión Santa Fe Reserve (A)0-5
- Sep 29 · v Atlético Tucumán Reserve (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Sarmiento Reserve | Banfield Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-2 | 1-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.