Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:00 · Sarmiento Reserve vs Tigre Reserve
Likeliest: Sarmiento Reserve win · 37%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sarmiento Reserve37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%29%+1
OursMarket
Tigre Reserve32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sarmiento Reserve
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 15 · at San Lorenzo Reserve (A)1-1
- Oct 8 · v Vélez Sarsfield Reserve (H)0-1
- Oct 1 · at River Plate Reserve (A)0-1
- Sep 23 · v Atletico Rafaela Reserve (H)3-1
- Sep 15 · v Racing Reserve (H)0-1
Tigre Reserve
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 14 · v Argentinos Juniors Reserve (H)0-1
- Oct 7 · at Aldosivi Reserve (A)0-1
- Sep 29 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima Reserve (H)2-1
- Sep 23 · at Defensa y Justicia Reserve (A)1-2
- Sep 16 · at Unión Santa Fe Reserve (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | Sarmiento Reserve | Tigre Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-2 | 1-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.