Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Thu, Oct 8 · 18:00 · Sarmiento Reserve vs Vélez Sarsfield Reserve
Likeliest: Vélez Sarsfield Reserve win · 47%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 47% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sarmiento Reserve24%27%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Vélez Sarsfield Reserve47%45%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 61% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 50% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 42% | 47% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 37% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.7 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sarmiento Reserve
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 1 · at River Plate Reserve (A)0-1
- Sep 23 · v Atletico Rafaela Reserve (H)3-1
- Sep 15 · v Racing Reserve (H)0-1
- Sep 9 · at Instituto AC Cordoba Reserves (A)2-2
- Sep 1 · at Argentinos Juniors Reserve (A)1-1
Vélez Sarsfield Reserve
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 1 · v Argentinos Juniors Reserve (H)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Ferro Carril Oeste Reserve (H)4-0
- Sep 15 · at Aldosivi Reserve (A)1-0
- Sep 8 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima Reserve (H)0-0
- Sep 1 · at Unión Santa Fe Reserve (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Sarmiento Reserve | Vélez Sarsfield Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-1 | 1-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.