Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Mon, Oct 19 · 22:00 · Sarmiento vs Barracas Central
Likeliest: Sarmiento win · 40%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sarmiento40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw34%31%+3
OursMarket
Barracas Central26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 35% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 42% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 69% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sarmiento
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 14 · v River Plate (H)1-1
- Oct 9 · at Aldosivi (A)3-1
- Sep 19 · at Racing Club (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · v Belgrano (H)1-1
- Sep 4 · at Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (A)2-0
Barracas Central
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v Huracán (H)0-0
- Oct 3 · at Atlético Tucumán (A)3-2
- Sep 21 · v Independiente Rivadavia (H)0-1
- Sep 14 · at Banfield (A)1-1
- Sep 7 · v Argentinos Juniors (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Sarmiento | Barracas Central |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.