Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Wed, Oct 14 · 22:00 · Sarmiento vs River Plate
Likeliest: River Plate win · 57%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 57% for the away win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sarmiento14%18%−4
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
River Plate57%55%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 41% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 44% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 86% | 82% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 19% | 25% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sarmiento
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 9 · at Aldosivi (A)3-1
- Sep 19 · at Racing Club (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · v Belgrano (H)1-1
- Sep 4 · at Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (A)2-0
- Aug 28 · at Club Atlético Unión de Santa Fe (A)1-4
River Plate
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Huracán (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Atlético Tucumán (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Independiente Rivadavia (H)3-1
- Aug 30 · at Banfield (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Sarmiento | River Plate |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.