3rd Division, Group 6 (Norway) · Mon, Oct 12 · 17:00 · Sarpsborg 08 II vs Raelingen FK
Likeliest: Sarpsborg 08 II win · 46%
A 27% draw. The market says 23%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sarpsborg 08 II46%46%0
OursMarket
Draw27%23%+4
OursMarket
Raelingen FK27%31%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 69% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 77% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 60% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sarpsborg 08 II
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 3 · at Drøbak/Frogn (A)1-4
- Sep 26 · v Gjøvik-Lyn (H)3-2
- Sep 21 · at Lyn 1896 FK II (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Lillehammer (H)3-1
- Sep 7 · at Ørn-Horten (A)4-3
Raelingen FK
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 3 · at Gjøvik-Lyn (A)0-5
- Sep 28 · v Lyn 1896 FK II (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Elverum (A)1-4
- Sep 12 · v Drøbak/Frogn (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Lillehammer (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Sarpsborg 08 II | Raelingen FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-1 | 2-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.