Eliteserien (Norway) · Sun, Oct 25 · 16:00 · Sarpsborg 08 vs Aalesunds FK
Likeliest: Sarpsborg 08 win · 53%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sarpsborg 0853%52%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Aalesunds FK24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 66% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 48% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sarpsborg 08
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 18 · v Rosenborg BK (H)0-3
- Oct 11 · at Aalesunds FK (A)4-2
- Sep 30 · at Follo (A)2-0
- Sep 18 · v KFUM Oslo (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · at Fredrikstad FK (A)1-1
Aalesunds FK
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · at Kristiansund BK (A)4-1
- Oct 11 · v Sarpsborg 08 (H)2-4
- Sep 19 · at Molde FK (A)2-1
- Sep 16 · at Førde (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · at KFUM Oslo (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Sarpsborg 08 | Aalesunds FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.