Eliteserien (Norway) · Fri, Sep 18 · 17:00 · Sarpsborg 08 vs KFUM Oslo
Likeliest: Sarpsborg 08 win · 57%
A 23% away win. The market says 18%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sarpsborg 0857%59%−2
OursMarket
Draw20%23%−3
OursMarket
KFUM Oslo23%18%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 82% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 41% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 77% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 76% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sarpsborg 08
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 13 · at Fredrikstad FK (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Vålerenga IF (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · at Tromsø IL (A)0-0
- Aug 16 · v Sandefjord Fotball (H)1-2
- Aug 8 · at Viking FK (A)1-2
KFUM Oslo
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 13 · v Aalesunds FK (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Molde FK (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · at IK Start (A)1-4
- Aug 15 · v Lillestrøm SK (H)1-1
- Aug 7 · at Sandefjord Fotball (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Sarpsborg 08 | KFUM Oslo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.