Eliteserien (Norway) · Sun, Oct 18 · 12:30 · Sarpsborg 08 vs Rosenborg BK
Likeliest: Rosenborg BK win · 40%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sarpsborg 0834%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Rosenborg BK40%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 65% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sarpsborg 08
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Aalesunds FK (A)4-2
- Sep 30 · at Follo (A)2-0
- Sep 18 · v KFUM Oslo (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · at Fredrikstad FK (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Vålerenga IF (H)2-2
Rosenborg BK
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v Sandefjord Fotball (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Kristiansund BK (A)3-1
- Sep 16 · at Fløya (A)4-1
- Sep 12 · v Tromsø IL (H)5-3
- Sep 5 · v HamKam (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Sarpsborg 08 | Rosenborg BK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.