1. Lig (Turkey) · Sat, Oct 24 · 16:00 · Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük
Likeliest: Sarıyer win · 36%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sarıyer36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Fatih Karagümrük35%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sarıyer
DrawWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at Sivasspor (A)1-1
- Oct 13 · v Bodrum FK (H)1-4
- Oct 9 · at Ümraniyespor (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Boluspor (H)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Bandırmaspor (H)1-1
Fatih Karagümrük
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 19 · v Keçiörengücü (H)1-2
- Oct 15 · at Mardin 1969 Spor (A)0-1
- Oct 11 · v Muğlaspor (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Esenler Erokspor (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Manisa FK (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Sarıyer | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.