Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 3 · 13:00 · Sassuolo vs AC Milan
Likeliest: Sassuolo win · 37%
A 37% home win. The market says 21%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sassuolo37%21%+16
OursMarket
Draw29%24%+4
OursMarket
AC Milan35%55%−20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 55% | −23 |
| Both teams score | 42% | 56% | −14 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 45% | +20 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 79% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 76% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 28% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sassuolo
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Apr 26 · at Fiorentina (A)0-0
- Apr 17 · v Como (H)2-1
- Apr 12 · at Genoa (A)1-2
- Apr 4 · v Cagliari (H)2-1
- Mar 21 · at Juventus (A)1-1
AC Milan
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Apr 26 · v Juventus (H)0-0
- Apr 19 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-0
- Apr 11 · v Udinese (H)0-3
- Apr 6 · at Napoli (A)0-1
- Mar 21 · v Torino (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Sassuolo | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.