Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Oct 11 · 16:00 · Sassuolo vs AC Milan
Likeliest: AC Milan win · 55%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 55% for the away win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sassuolo19%22%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
AC Milan55%52%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 81% | 78% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 26% | 30% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sassuolo
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 3 · at Fiorentina (A)0-2
- Sep 27 · v AS Roma (H)1-3
- Sep 18 · at Monza (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · v Juventus (H)3-2
- Sep 6 · at Bologna (A)2-2
AC Milan
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Oct 4 · v Juventus (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · at Como (A)1-4
- Sep 20 · v Lecce (H)3-0
- Sep 16 · v Benfica (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · at Lazio (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Sassuolo | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.