Serie A Femminile (Italy) · Sun, Sep 27 · 13:00 · Sassuolo vs AS Roma
Likeliest: Sassuolo win · 44%
We make it 54% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sassuolo44%22%+22
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+1
OursMarket
AS Roma30%53%−23
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 58% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 58% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 47% | +23 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 78% | −22 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 30% | +30 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sassuolo
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Sep 18 · at Monza (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · v Juventus (H)3-2
- Sep 6 · at Bologna (A)2-2
- Sep 2 · v Frosinone (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Torino (H)2-1
AS Roma
No recent results tracked.
| Last 10 games | Sassuolo | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | — |
| Both teams scored | 80% | — |
| Clean sheets | 10% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.