Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Mar 1 · 14:00 · Sassuolo vs Atalanta
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 39%
A 36% home win. The market says 26%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sassuolo36%26%+10
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Atalanta39%46%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 50% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 55% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 54% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 74% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 36% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sassuolo
WinWinLossWinWin
- Feb 20 · v Hellas Verona (H)3-0
- Feb 15 · at Udinese (A)2-1
- Feb 8 · v Inter (H)0-5
- Jan 31 · at Pisa (A)3-1
- Jan 25 · v Cremonese (H)1-0
Atalanta
WinWinLossWinWin
- Feb 25 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)4-1
- Feb 22 · v Napoli (H)2-1
- Feb 17 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-2
- Feb 14 · at Lazio (A)2-0
- Feb 9 · v Cremonese (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Sassuolo | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.