Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Mar 15 · 14:00 · Sassuolo vs Bologna
Likeliest: Bologna win · 45%
A 45% away win. The market says 33%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sassuolo31%38%−7
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−6
OursMarket
Bologna45%33%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 47% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 54% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 67% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 62% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 54% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sassuolo
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Mar 9 · at Lazio (A)1-2
- Mar 1 · v Atalanta (H)2-1
- Feb 20 · v Hellas Verona (H)3-0
- Feb 15 · at Udinese (A)2-1
- Feb 8 · v Inter (H)0-5
Bologna
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Mar 12 · v Roma (H)1-1
- Mar 8 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-2
- Mar 2 · at Pisa (A)1-0
- Feb 26 · v Brann (H)1-0
- Feb 23 · v Udinese (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Sassuolo | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.