Coppa Italia (Italy) · Mon, Aug 17 · 16:30 · Sassuolo vs Cesena
Likeliest: Sassuolo win · 63%
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sassuolo63%63%0
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
Cesena16%16%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 59% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 84% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 37% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 79% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sassuolo
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- May 24 · at Parma (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Lecce (H)2-3
- May 8 · at Torino (A)1-2
- May 3 · v AC Milan (H)2-0
- Apr 26 · at Fiorentina (A)0-0
Cesena
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- May 8 · v Calcio Padova (H)3-4
- May 1 · at Carrarese (A)0-0
- Apr 25 · v Sampdoria (H)0-0
- Apr 18 · at Palermo (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · at Juve Stabia (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Sassuolo | Cesena |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.