Serie A (Italy) · Fri, Apr 17 · 16:30 · Sassuolo vs Como
Likeliest: Como win · 45%
A 28% home win. The market says 17%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sassuolo28%17%+12
OursMarket
Draw26%23%+4
OursMarket
Como45%61%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 55% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 53% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 39% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 83% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 77% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 21% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sassuolo
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Apr 12 · at Genoa (A)1-2
- Apr 4 · v Cagliari (H)2-1
- Mar 21 · at Juventus (A)1-1
- Mar 15 · v Bologna (H)0-1
- Mar 9 · at Lazio (A)1-2
Como
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Apr 12 · v Inter (H)3-4
- Apr 6 · at Udinese (A)0-0
- Mar 22 · v Pisa (H)5-0
- Mar 15 · v Roma (H)2-1
- Mar 7 · at Cagliari (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Sassuolo | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.