Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Dec 6 · 14:00 · Sassuolo vs Fiorentina
Likeliest: Sassuolo win · 47%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sassuolo47%32%+15
OursMarket
Draw23%29%−7
OursMarket
Fiorentina31%38%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 45% | +18 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 62% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 68% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 71% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 46% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sassuolo
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Nov 28 · at Como (A)0-2
- Nov 24 · v Pisa (H)2-2
- Nov 9 · at Atalanta (A)3-0
- Nov 3 · v Genoa (H)1-2
- Oct 30 · at Cagliari (A)2-1
Fiorentina
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Nov 30 · at Atalanta (A)0-2
- Nov 27 · v AEK Athens (H)0-1
- Nov 22 · v Juventus (H)1-1
- Nov 9 · at Genoa (A)2-2
- Nov 6 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Sassuolo | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.